Weekly comment MM Prime TFI  - November 16, 2015

Once again, investors at Ksiazeca did not have an easy week. The WIG20 index dropped by 2% closing at 2015 points (a week before declined by 2.2%). Psychological support at 2000 points is quite close. In the same period, the German DAX grew by 1.3% and this was fifth consecutive week of growth. In comparison - the WIG20 fell fourth week in a row and did not benefit from better investment sentiment supported by potential expansion of QE program in Europe

Last week was an example of disassociation of movements on the Warsaw Stock Exchange with world's major indices, where stabilization after a strong previous week was noticed. The German DAX rose by 0.5%, the French CAC40 index was down by 0,5%. Changes on Wall Street were even smaller – the DJIA rose 0.2%, while the S&P 500 by 0.1%. Publication season is in progress, but the highest volatility is generated FOMC meeting. More hawkish message only temporarily worsened sentiment as investors may perceive it as well in terms of reducing risks to the global economy and the expectations of the return of strong US labor market.

The beginning of the week did not indicate a change in sentiment on global financial markets. During the first days of the week some of major stock indices in both Europe and the U.S. were able to slightly gain, another were just oscillating around the last week’s closing line. But things changed on Thursday, when an optimism returned to the markets thanks to dovish ECB President's comment. After the meeting when the ECB left interest rates unchanged Mario Draghi said that the European QE program will last at least until September 2016. It was also said that in order to support economic growth and inflation in Europe the QE might be extended.

After successful previous week on global stock markets the time for correction has come. On the plus side, growths from the previous week have been retained. Such a momentary markets cooldown can be helpful for next growths. But we can not exclude a scenario that recent increases were only a correction within a downward trend. In that case investors should be prepared for further declines. The direction of the breakout of the consolidations made on major indices last week should be the quickest hint. Nevertheless, we can forget about higher growths until individual indices break out above September peaks. That move would create a double bottom pattern.