The presidential election in the US was not only the highlight of the week – it was one of the most important events of the year. The choice of Donald Trump as the 45th President of the US was supposed to be this year’s black swan. Famous billionaire won the race for the White House, whereas there was not any panic in financial markets. Furthermore, last week brought significant increases of major global stock indices. In the US, the DJI took off by 5.4%, while the NASDAQ and the S&P500 went up by 3.8%. In Europe, German DAX rose by 4%, French CAC40 increased by 2.6% and British FTSE250 grew by 1%.

The past week was extremely interesting and full of market emotions. Investors focused on the FOMC meeting. As expected, the interest rates remained unchanged. However, the market consensus assumed that the Fed would tighten the monetary policy during the last meeting of the year - it will take place on the 13th and 14th of December. Moreover, investors’ attention was paid to the terminative race for the White House. Successive scandals involving Hilary Clinton led to the increase in support for Donald Trump in the latest polls. This had an adversely impact on the global market sentiment. During the whole week, the NASDAQ fell by 2.8%, the S&P500 decreased by 1.9% and the DJI went down by 1.5%. In Europe, German DAX declined by 4.1%, French CAC40 dropped by 3.8% and British FTSE250 fell by 2.1%.

Last week investors focused on macroeconomic data readings from major global economies. Some data from the US was disappointing, whereas the most important one turned out to be robust. Special attention should be paid to the annualized GDP growth for the third quarter of 2016. It stood at 2.9% vs 2.5% projected. Furthermore, the publications of the PMIs did not fail as well. The manufacturing PMI amounted to 53.2 pts. vs 51.6 pts. expected and the services PMI stood at 54.8 pts. against market consensus at 52.5 pts.. The robust readings confirmed market’s expectations that the interest rates raise in the US would probably take place in December.

Last week did not bring significant changes in the major global stock indices. In the US, the NASDAQ rose by 0.8%, the S&P500 increased by 0.4%, while the DJI soared by 0.04%. In Europe, French CAC40 took off by 1.5%, German DAX went up by 1.2% and British FTSE250 fell by 0.3%. The meeting of the ECB Governing Council was the highlight of the week. In line with market consensus, the interest rates remained unchanged. However, investors expected that Mario Draghi would announce an expansion of the QE. Meanwhile, it turned out that the council did not consider the issue. Moreover, the president of the ECB emphasized that the program would not soon be concluded. Generally, the message was rather dovish, whereas not enough to meet market expectations.

The second week of October brought an increase in probability of the American interest rates raise. The minutes from the last meeting of the FOMC turned out to be slightly less hawkish than expected. Nevertheless rising oil prices caused a growth in the inflationary expectations. Moreover, in October most of the economic data readings did not fail. Last week investors learnt the PPI - it stood at 0.7% y/y vs 0.4% expected. Furthermore, the dynamic of the retail sales amounted to 2.7% y/y. The result was in line with market consensus. Therefore, despite the fact that the latest data from the American labor market turned out to be quite disappointing, the FOMC seemed to be in favour of monetary tightening.